Here are the nominees and my predictions for who will win Oscar gold on Sunday February 28.
This is a tough year to pick because other than Best Actor, I think many categories are not as clear cut.
Best Picture
* The Big Short
* Bridge of Spies
* Brooklyn
* Mad Max: Fury Road
* The Martian
* The Revenant
* Room
* Spotlight
Prediction: The Revenant. Here is one out of left field. The Big Short won the Producer's Guild Award last Saturday and only 6 times out of 24 did the Producer's Guild Winner and Best Picture not match. However, I don't see The Big Short as coming through here. The Revenant carries more nominations and gravitas, so I'll go with that with about 70% confidence. Spotlight was said to be a favorite when awards season started, but did not win a Golden Globe or the Producer's Guild. I think its chances are slimmer by the day.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
* Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
* Matt Damon, The Martian
* Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
* Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
* Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio. His fifth acting nomination will net him the Oscar. He had to endure a tough shoot and ugly himself up, two things which can earn an Oscar. This is as close to a lock as can be. Redmayne won last year, but it is difficult to win in consecutive years.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
* Cate Blanchett, Carol
* Brie Larson, Room
* Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
* Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
* Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Prediction: Brie Larson. Won Golden Globe for Best Actress-Drama. Blanchett and Lawrence are recent winners, but buzz has surrounded Larson for a long time prior to awards season.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
* Christian Bale, The Big Short
* Tom Hardy, The Revenant
* Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
* Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
* Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Prediction: Mark Rylance. Stallone won the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Award, but not nominated for a Screen Actors' Guild or BAFTA award, two awards in which actors vote for the winner. Perplexing. I anticipate Rylance to win the SAG award and then carry momentum to the Oscar. It would be odd to give Stallone ostensibly a life achievement Oscar for role he has played seven times now.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
* Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
* Rooney Mara, Carol
* Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
* Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
* Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Prediction: The toughest pick, but Kate Winslet. She has won the Golden Globe in this category and this is her seventh nomination (with one win for 2008's The Reader). Unless Vikander wins the SAG award this weekend, Winslet's second win will seem more of a foregone conclusion.
Best Director
* Adam McKay, The Big Short
* George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
* Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
* Lenny Abrahamson, Room
* Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
Prediction: George Miller. A veteran director whose film garnered 10 Oscar nominations. I personally never could have predicted Mad Max: Fury Road as an awards season darling, but here we are. This will be third time in the last four years in which Best Picture and Best Director will not match up. Inarritu won for Birdman last year, but again consecutive wins are hard to come by in this category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
* The Big Short
* Brooklyn
* Carol
* The Martian
* Room
Prediction: The Big Short. If it has any hope of winning Best Picture, The Big Short must win this category. It is up for only 5 Oscars so there aren't a lot of wins to be found. I think this will be the consolation prize.
Best Original Screenplay
* Bridge of Spies
* Ex Machina
* Inside Out
* Spotlight
* Straight Outta Compton
Prediction: Straight Outta Compton. Before the outrage over the lack of diversity among the Oscar nominees, I would have picked Spotlight. But since then, Straight Outta Compton is the only film that represents any semblance of diversity and it will be the Writers' branch of the Academy's choice to right this wrong.
We will see how I do on Oscar night.
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