89th Academy Awards Nominees and Predictions

The nominations are hot off the presses.    I prefer to make my picks before other awards shows begin.     It is a true test of my prognostication skills, which over the fpst few years hasn't been great.  These predictions are best on what way I feel the Academy will vote, not on my personal preferences.

Actor in a Leading Role

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)
Denzel Washington (Fences)

Prediction:    Casey Affleck.    In a very tight race with Ryan Gosling, also a Golden Globe winner like Affleck.   

Actor in a Supporting Role

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)

Prediction:    Mahershala Ali.    His performance casts a long shadow over Moonlight and it is quiet and brilliant.     Michael Shannon is a surprise nominee here.    His castmate, Aaron Taylor Johnson, won a Golden Globe in this category but was shut out of a nomination.

Actress in a Leading Role

Isabelle Huppert (Elle)
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)

Prediction:   Emma Stone.    She sings and the camera loves her.    Huppert won a surprise Golden Globe, but only a handful of actors have won Oscars for foreign language roles.

Actress in a Supporting Role

Viola Davis (Fences)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)

Prediction:   Viola Davis.    A slam dunk.    My personal choice would be Michelle Williams, who has some very powerful scenes in not nearly as much screen time as Davis, who I think should really be competing in the Lead Actress category. 

Directing

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Prediction:   Damien Chazelle.    Won Golden Globe.   The movie has gained considerable momentum since its record award tally at the Globes.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Prediction:   Moonlight.    The WGA placed this in the original screenplay category, but since it was based on an unproduced play, the Academy placed Moonlight in this category.    It paves the way for a Moonlight win.  

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
20th Century Women

Prediction:  Manchester by the Sea.    At first,  I thought this was a lock.    But with La La Land's momentum, maybe that will sneak in.    But I'll stick with my first instinct.  

Best Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Prediction:  La La Land.    Ties record with 14 nominations.    Hollywood loves movies about show business, especially in recent Best Picture wins.   (Argo, The Artist, Birdman, Chicago)