2018 Oscar Nominations and Predictions

The nominations for the 90th Annual Academy Awards are out.    Here are my annual predictions in the major categories.

BEST PICTURE

Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Prediction:   Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.   The Shape of Water, with 13 nominations, is the only other possibility in this category.    Since 2011, the Best Director and Best Picture winners have agreed only once.    Prior to that, these winners usually went hand in hand.    I see The Shape of Water winning Best Director, but Three Billboards taking the top prize.    Oddly, only four times in Oscar history has a Best Picture won without a corresponding Best Director nomination.    The last time was 2012's Argo.

BEST DIRECTOR

Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
Get Out (Jordan Peele)
Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)
Phantom Thread (Paul Thomas Anderson)
The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro)

Prediction:  Guillermo del Toro.    Already a Golden Globe winner, I anticipate del Toro will add a Director's Guild award and Oscar to his burgeoning mantle within the next month.

BEST ACTOR

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour 
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Prediction:   Gary Oldman.   Having won a Golden Globe and SAG Award already, it appears to be the punctuation on a long distinguished career for Oldman will happen on Oscar night, barring any possible #MeToo ramifications over alleged domestic abuse by Oldman years ago during a divorce.    But, I think Oldman sidesteps that and wins.    If not, I will say Daniel Day-Lewis takes home his fourth Best Actor Oscar.   

BEST ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saorise Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Prediction:  Frances McDormand.   A nice bookend Oscar for the 1996 Best Actress winner for Fargo.   Interesting side note, four of the five performances in which McDormand has been nominated have been for films with places in their title:   Mississippi Burning, Fargo, North Country, and now Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri 

Prediction:  Sam Rockwell.   Willem Dafoe had won almost every critics association award you can think of, but Rockwell's wins in the Golden Globes and the SAG awards have completed stifled Dafoe's momentum.    He will have to wait for another year.    Rockwell showed amazing depth in his moving work and will be rewarded.   

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Prediction:  Allison Janney.   Like Willem Dafoe, Laurie Metcalf was the critics associations' darling until the Golden Globes.    Then, it has been all Allison Janney.    I have no reason to believe it won't continue at the Oscars.  


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Big Sick
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Prediction:  Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.   Martin McDonagh was overlooked for a Best Direct nomination, so I look for a win here for him.  

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Logan
Molly's Game
Mudbound

Prediction:  Call Me by Your Name.   89-year-old James Ivory, a multiple time Oscar nominee himself as director of A Room with a View, Howard's End, and The Remains of the Day will break through with this award.     I did not see Mudbound yet, but this is a thin category.    How else would you explain Logan among the five finalists?  


Notes:   Last year, I went 7 for 8 in these categories.   My only miss (which ruined my chance at perfection) was Best Picture.    We all know what happened there last year, but for three glorious minutes or so I was 8 for 8.