The Academy Award Nominations were announced this morning. To be frank, 2018 was a lean year for movies. Only three of the eight best picture nominees this year received a three-star rating or better in my reviews. Those movies are: A Star Is Born, Green Book, and BlackkKlansman. Green Book is by far the best of the best picture nominees. Please note my predictions are not based on my reviews or my preferences, but my opinion as to what the Academy will choose as its winners in each category.
Best Picture:
Black Panther
BlackkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
Prediction: Roma. To my surprise, Bradley Cooper was passed over in the Best Director category, as was Peter Farrelly for Green Book. This severely hampers their chances at a Best Picture win, because only four times in the history of the Oscars has a movie won Best Picture without a corresponding Best Director nomination. The last time this occurred was Argo (2012). This puts Roma in the frontrunner position. I'm sensing A Star Is Born will win Best Song and maybe a technical award or two, but shut out of the big prizes. Green Book will likely take home two, maybe three awards, but not Best Picture despite its recent PGA win.
Best Director:
Spike Lee (BlackkKlansman)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron. With a Golden Globe and Critics' Choice win already bagged, an almost certain Directors' Guild award and an Oscar is in Cuaron's future. He previously won Best Director for Gravity (2013).
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Prediction: Christian Bale. A Best Supporting Actor winner for 2010's The Fighter, Bale has already taken home a Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Award for his portrayal of Dick Cheney. Bale morphed his look and body, thanks to makeup and a surely poor diet, into that of the former VP. The Academy likes that. Your opinion may vary as to whether the physical transformation equates to a great performance.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Prediction: Glenn Close. This is her seventh nomination and first since 2011's Albert Nobbs. This will be her year. Oh, and her performance is really good also.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlackkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Prediction: Mahershala Ali. There may be a temptation to predict Sam Elliott because of the sentimental vote. This is Elliott's first nomination in a small role, but Ali's performance won't be denied in a mostly strong category.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Prediction: Regina King. King won a Golden Globe and Critics' Choice Award for her role, and I can't bet against her in this category. Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are previous winners, with Amy Adams securing her sixth nomination. She will have to wait for at least her seventh to be named an Oscar winner.
Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice
Prediction: Green Book. Despite the controversy surrounding the film, (i.e. criticism of the film's veracity by members of Dr. Don Shirley's family...surprise, surprise), Green Book will win a tight contest.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlackkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born
Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk. Barry Jenkins shared the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar in 2016 for Moonlight. I anticipate Jenkins takes the award solo this year. A dark horse may be for BlackkKlansman, which would net Spike Lee his first competitive Oscar. He already has a Governor's Award from the Academy.
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