Best Picture
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
Winner: 1917. Having won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture-Drama and the Producer's Guild Award, 1917 is a clear favorite. The overall lot of Best Picture nominees are all ones I've given positive reviews except 1917. (Parasite will be reviewed shortly). My favorite of the group is Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood, but that movie has clearly lost its steam.
Lead Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Winner: Joaquin Phoenix. Like Heath Ledger, Phoenix will win an Oscar for playing Batman's arch enemy, but Phoenix's performance would've been Oscar-worthy even if he weren't playing the already established villain. Joker is a backstory of a wannabe stand up comedian slowly coming apart due to mental illness. Phoenix delivers his career-best performance.
Lead Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saorise Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renee Zellweger (Judy)
Winner: Renee Zellweger. Barring a monumental upset, Zellweger will win her second Oscar in the role of fading Judy Garland, whose addiction to drugs and alcohol send her into a career tailspin in the time shortly before her death at age 47. Is Zellweger's role Oscar bait? Sure, but Zellweger inspires sympathy and she can also sing.
Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)
Winner: Brad Pitt. Already a Golden Globe and SAG Award winner, Pitt will add his first acting Oscar to his resume (he previously won as a producer for 12 Years a Slave) in a performance which stole the movie, relying heavily on Pitt's charm and charisma.
Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Winner: Laura Dern. Like my predictions in the three other acting categories, Dern has already nabbed a Golden Globe and SAG Award for her role. She will carry the momentum to a well-deserved Oscar.
Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
Todd Phillips (Joker)
Sam Mendes (1917)
Quentin Tarantino (Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood)
Bong Joon Ho (Parasite)
Winner: Sam Mendes. The Directors' Guild has yet to announce its winner, but I strongly suspect it to be Mendes, and thus Mendes will go on to secure his second Best Director Oscar. His first was twenty years ago for American Beauty. The DGA and Academy rarely differs on its picks.
Best Original Screenplay
Knives Out
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
Winner: Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood. With the Best Picture hopes fading by the day and Best Director likely to be won by Sam Mendes, Tarantino will have to settle for his third Best Original Screenplay win. His previous wins were for Pulp Ficion and Django Unchained. Hollywood is Tarantino's most complete vision.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes
Winner: Little Women. With the uproar surrounding the lack of female Best Director nominees, including Gerwig, whose Little Women is up for Best Picture, Greta Gerwig will win this award as a consolation prize.
I'm supremely confident in going 8 for 8 for the first time maybe ever. We'll see come February 10 when I post my post-Oscar thoughts. I'm sure I'll have a few, although thankfully the program comes without a host for the second year in a row. Last year, the show clocked in at just over three hours and ended while it was still Sunday on the East Coast. When you employ a host, you must then find him or her something to do, and this leads to boring skits no one will remember and plenty of filler which only adds to the running time. Instead of writing jokes about how long the show is, why not just eliminate the middle man and get on with the presentations? The Academy saw an uptick in ratings for the first time in years last year, so keep the host on the sidelines. You won't hear much uproar from anyone.
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