It's that time of year again, albeit later than usual due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The Oscars ceremony will be held on April 25, 2021 this year. Normally they are held some time in February. This is obviously a crazy year for movies just like anything else. Some of the nominated movies and performances never saw the big screen. The Academy allowed for movies to be eligible which were only shown on streaming services. Is this a trend that's here to stay? We will find out.
Here are my picks for the major awards.
Actor in a Leading Role:
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)
Prediction: Chadwick Boseman. There are excellent performances up and down this category, but Boseman will win. As close to a lock as you can get.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami)
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)
Prediction: Daniel Kaluuya. I've heard of category fraud, where a basically leading role is nominated in a supporting category to increase chances of awards success, but both Kaluuya and Stanfield were both leads in Judas and the Black Messiah. If not, which lead were they supporting? Kaluuya has swept awards so far, so I don't anticipate a change here.
Actress in a Leading Role
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday)
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
Prediction: Carey Mulligan. Andra Day scored a deserved nomination in a bad movie, so that may decrease her chances despite a Golden Globe. Mullian won the Critics' Choice award. With SAG awards still pending, I'll go with Mulligan. McDormand has two Best Actress awards under her belt already. I don't predict a third.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Maria Bakalova (Borat: Subsequent Movie Film)
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
Olivia Colman (The Father)
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)
Prediction: My instinct is to go with Close, who was nominated seven previous times without a win. 2018's The Wife seemed like a lock, but Olivia Colman won the prize. I don't anticipate history will repeat itself. I am far from confident, but I will go with Close.
Directing
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)
David Fincher (Mank)
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
Prediction: Chloe Zhao. The first time more than one woman is nominated in this category. Zhao is the front runner.
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Prediction: Nomadland. Has won the Golden Globe and Producer's Guild Awards. This doesn't always translate to an Oscar win. Last year, Parasite won Best Picture without winning either of the previous two big prizes. But I feel safe with a Nomadland pick.
Writing-Original Screenplay
Judas and the Black Messiah
Minari
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Prediction: A tough category, but Promising Young Woman. Its themes in the age of #MeToo will resonate.
Writing-Adapted Screenplay
Borat: Subsequent Movie Film
The Father
Nomadland
One Night in Miami
The White Tiger
Prediction: One Night in Miami. Its themes on race, celebrity, and civil rights are timely...especially today.
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