This year is one of the toughest years to call in certain categories in a long time. Considering that last year I went 4 for 8 in major categories, I probably can't do much worse this year.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years A Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)
Prediction: Matthew McConaughey. He has won a Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and SAG award for his performance. Don't ever discount the Academy's love for an actor who loses a lot of weight and puts himself through hell for a role. Christian Bale gained a lot of weight for American Hustle, but that won't fly, especially since it's a lot more fun to pack on the pounds than it is to keep it off.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)
Prediction: Amy Adams. A tough one, mostly because although Blanchett has won a Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and SAG Award, but has not faced off with Golden Globe winner Adams (for comedy role) in direct competition yet. I think American Hustle won't win much overall, but like last year, a David O. Russell directed film will take home Best Actress. This is Adams' fifth nomination against four other women who have won Oscars previously. She's not going anywhere and an Oscar win will happen eventually. Why not now?
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years A Slave)
Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
Prediction: Jared Leto. Leto's first film role in six years has netted him the Golden Globe, Critics' Choice, and SAG awards for his role as a transgendered AIDS patient. He has won these awards in direct competition with the other actors here, so I can't see him losing the Oscar now. Overall, this group is pretty strong.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong'o (12 Years A Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)
Prediction: Lupita Nyong'o. She is making her film debut and it's a two-horse race between Golden Globe winner Lawrence (who also won a Best Actress Oscar last year) and Nyong'o. June Squibb is 85 years old, but she won't win because, well, who the hell is June Squibb? I enjoyed Lawrence's performance more so than Nyong'o's, but I'm making predictions not providing reviews.
Best Director
David O. Russell (American Hustle)
Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity)
Alexander Payne (Nebraska)
Steve McQueen (12 Years A Slave)
Martin Scorsese (The Wolf of Wall Street)
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron. The Gravity director has won the Golden Globe, DGA, and Critics' Choice award, so an Oscar win is all but assured. However, I'm not entirely sold that Gravity will win Best Picture, so it's a possibility of a split director/picture award this year. I felt coming into awards season that McQueen would rack up awards, but he has yet to win any major directing honors.
Best Original Screenplay
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
Dallas Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
Prediction: Her. Spike Jonze has been nominated previously for directing Being John Malkovich. This futuristic romantic drama won a Golden Globe and Critics' Choice award. It's original enough to spark a win in this category.
Best Adapted Screenplay
12 Years A Slave
Before Midnight
Captain Phillips
Philomena
Wolf Of Wall Street
Prediction: 12 Years A Slave. If the film has any hope of winning Best Picture, it must win this category. Wolf Of Wall Street may receive backlash because of its alleged "glorification" of its characters.
Best Picture
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
Wolf of Wall Street
Prediction: 12 Years A Slave. This is the toughest Best Picture to pick in quite a while, mostly because other awards shows have been all over the map. This film won Golden Globe-Drama, Critics' Choice, and tied for the Producer's Guild Of America award with Gravity. American Hustle won Best Ensemble Cast in the SAG Awards and Golden Globe-Comedy. Gravity will likely win Director, but do voters really think it has enough gravitas (no pun intended) to win the big prize? 12 Years A Slave deals with history and race relations and has plenty of gravitas. In a squeaker, I like 12 Years A Slave, but I'm by no means completely confident.
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